Tower280, The Metropolitan, Erie Harbor + new projects. Full HOA fees, price per sq ft, amenities chart, and 2026 inventory forecast.
The Greater Rochester Association of Realtors, Zillow Research, Realtor.com, and the Rochester First Economic Panel all released their official 2026 forecasts in November–December 2025 — and for the first time in years, every single one agrees on the big picture:
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Consensus Forecast | Change | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $252,000 | $263,000–$278,000 | +4.4–+10.3% | GRAR, Zillow, Realtor.com |
| Sales Volume | 9,840 | 10,430–10,820 | +6–10% | GRAR |
| Active Listings (year-end) | 1,847 | 1,950–2,200 | +5–19% | GRAR |
| Months of Supply | 3.2 | 3.3–3.8 | Balanced | NAR |
| 30-yr Fixed Rate (avg) | 5.81% | 5.4–5.9% | Stable | Freddie Mac |
| Net Migration | +4,200 households | +4,500–5,100 | +7–21% | U.S. Census |
Rates settle at 5.5%, inventory stays elevated, migration continues from NYC/Buffalo/California.
Result: Prices rise 4.2–5.1%, sales +7%, multiple offers only in Pittsford/Brighton under $450k.
Fed cuts rates aggressively (3+ times), remote-work relocations accelerate.
Result: Prices jump 7–9%, inventory drops below 3 months by May, return of bidding wars.
Tech/healthcare layoffs hit harder than expected, consumer confidence falls.
Result: Prices flat to +2%, concessions return, best buyer’s market since 2020.
Downtown Rochester will add 410 new apartments/condos in 2026 via office conversions (Sibley Square III, Legacy Tower, Midtown parcels). This keeps city prices stable while pushing buyers to suburbs.
U.S. Census Bureau projects net +4,800 households from downstate NY and out-of-state — highest since 2019.
1,312 new permits expected in 2026 (vs 1,126 in 2025) — mostly in Victor, Webster, Perinton.
Freddie Mac & Goldman Sachs both forecast 5.4–5.9% average — no return to 3–4% but stable enough for buyer confidence.
| Area | 2025 Median | 2026 Forecast Range | Expected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsford | $585k | $625–$665k | 7–13% |
| Brighton | $398k | $420–$445k | 5.5–11% |
| Charlotte (waterfront) | $272k | $305–$340k | 12–25% |
| South Wedge | $289k | $305–$325k | 5.5–12% |
| City Overall | $252k | $263–$278k | 4.4–10.3% |
“Rochester will remain the most balanced market in New York State — no crazy spikes, no crashes.”
“Expect another 5–7% appreciation with inventory finally giving buyers breathing room.”
“The conversion pipeline downtown is the safety valve that prevents another 2021-style frenzy.”
If you're ready to buy, winter 2025–2026 remains the sweet spot — rates are low, inventory is high, and sellers are still motivated. Waiting until spring risks higher competition and 1–2% higher rates.
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