The Greater Rochester Association of Realtors, Zillow Research, Realtor.com, and the Rochester First Economic Panel all released their official 2026 forecasts in November–December 2025 — and for the first time in years, every single one agrees on the big picture:
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Consensus Forecast | Change | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $252,000 | $263,000–$278,000 | +4.4–+10.3% | GRAR, Zillow, Realtor.com |
| Sales Volume | 9,840 | 10,430–10,820 | +6–10% | GRAR |
| Active Listings (year-end) | 1,847 | 1,950–2,200 | +5–19% | GRAR |
| Months of Supply | 3.2 | 3.3–3.8 | Balanced | NAR |
| 30-yr Fixed Rate (avg) | 5.81% | 5.4–5.9% | Stable | Freddie Mac |
| Net Migration | +4,200 households | +4,500–5,100 | +7–21% | U.S. Census |
Rates settle at 5.5%, inventory stays elevated, migration continues from NYC/Buffalo/California.
Result: Prices rise 4.2–5.1%, sales +7%, multiple offers only in Pittsford/Brighton under $450k.
Fed cuts rates aggressively (3+ times), remote-work relocations accelerate.
Result: Prices jump 7–9%, inventory drops below 3 months by May, return of bidding wars.
Tech/healthcare layoffs hit harder than expected, consumer confidence falls.
Result: Prices flat to +2%, concessions return, best buyer’s market since 2020.
Downtown Rochester will add 410 new apartments/condos in 2026 via office conversions (Sibley Square III, Legacy Tower, Midtown parcels). This keeps city prices stable while pushing buyers to suburbs.
U.S. Census Bureau projects net +4,800 households from downstate NY and out-of-state — highest since 2019.
1,312 new permits expected in 2026 (vs 1,126 in 2025) — mostly in Victor, Webster, Perinton.
Freddie Mac & Goldman Sachs both forecast 5.4–5.9% average — no return to 3–4% but stable enough for buyer confidence.
| Area | 2025 Median | 2026 Forecast Range | Expected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsford | $585k | $625–$665k | 7–13% |
| Brighton | $398k | $420–$445k | 5.5–11% |
| Charlotte (waterfront) | $272k | $305–$340k | 12–25% |
| South Wedge | $289k | $305–$325k | 5.5–12% |
| City Overall | $252k | $263–$278k | 4.4–10.3% |
“Rochester will remain the most balanced market in New York State — no crazy spikes, no crashes.”
“Expect another 5–7% appreciation with inventory finally giving buyers breathing room.”
“The conversion pipeline downtown is the safety valve that prevents another 2021-style frenzy.”
If you're ready to buy, winter 2025–2026 remains the sweet spot — rates are low, inventory is high, and sellers are still motivated. Waiting until spring risks higher competition and 1–2% higher rates.
